Day 1: Framing the Decision and Relevant Risks

Decision Question and Boundaries

• Define required outcome and actual decision
• Separate settled matters from genuine tradeoffs
• Set time authority and fundamental constraints
• Reframe an ambiguous decision issue

Sources of Uncertainty

• Identify key demand and stakeholder assumptions
• Separate measurable unknowns from irreducible uncertainty
• Determine information that could change choices
• Build assumptions register for the decision

Risk Appetite and Authority

• Determine what sits within delegated authority
• Interpret risk appetite for decisions
• Escalate boundary-exceeding choices before commitment
• Resolve edge-of-authority decision cases

Day 2: Scenarios, Tradeoffs, and Response Selection

Applied Decision Scenarios

• Build contrasting cases around critical variables
• Estimate option outcomes under each case
• Expose choices fragile to change
• Apply scenario table to real decision

Defining Comparison Criteria

• Use value, risk, reversibility criteria
• Weight criteria by purpose over convenience
• Make tradeoffs visible, not averaged
• Apply decision matrix to a case

Controls and Responses

• Select safeguards reducing exposure acceptably
• Compare control cost with option value
• Use contingencies, contract conditions, staged commitments
• Design response for one decision risk

Day 3: Commitment, Review, and Decision Learning

Recording the Decision and Assumptions

• Document option criteria and key assumptions
• Assign execution and monitoring responsibility
• Record explicitly accepted risks
• Prepare a concise decision memorandum

Indicators and Review Triggers

• Select signals showing assumptions have changed
• Set thresholds requiring formal reconsideration
• Define contingency choices before problems occur
• Create monitoring card linking signals/thresholds

Reviewing Decision Quality

• Separate process quality from luck-affected results
• Analyze available knowledge at decision time
• Identify improvements to the tradeoff method
• Review a previous decision case

• Decision cases containing incomplete information and genuine tradeoffs
• Scenario and criteria matrices linking value with exposure
• Exercises interpreting appetite delegation and review triggers
• Decision memoranda reviewed through structured peer challenge